US 10-Year Treasury Yield closes above 4.55% on September 18, 2026 (confirmed by US Treasury or Bloomberg by September 18, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. September 2026
·
Predicted for 18. September 2026
·
Based on: Ongoing Event
Polymarket prices a 79% probability of a Fed hike on September 16 to 3.75–4.00%. Polymarket also sees 88% probability the 10-year yield reaches 5.0% in 2026, implying current levels are already elevated. Post-decision bond selling ('sell the news') should push the 10Y above 4.55% on September 18. Kalshi priced the September hike at 58% as of September 2.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: FOMC September 2026 Zinserhöhung +25 Bp: 79 % (Stand 13.09.2026)
- Polymarket: US 10Y Treasury Yield erreicht 5,0 % in 2026: 88 % (Stand 13.09.2026)
- Kalshi: September-FOMC-Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit: 58 % (Stand 02.09.2026, KuCoin/ActionNetwork)
- Offene Cassandra-Vorhersage: FOMC September 2026 hebt Korridor auf 3,75–4,00 % an
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-10Y-Treasury-Rendite lag am 17./18.09.2026 bei ca. 4,80–5,00 % – deutlich über 4,55 %. Quelle: CNBC/FRED.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.