Polymarket at 92% for Pogacar (as of Jul 12, 2026); bookmaker odds imply ~96% (price 1.25). After 8 stages Pogacar leads the GC by 2:42 over Vingegaard and 3:27 over del Toro. He dominates every summit finish and has the strongest all-round package for the remaining 13 stages – including the double Alpe d'Huez (stages 19 & 20) and the only ITT (stage 16, July 21).
Polymarket assigns 91% probability to 'no change' at the ECB's July 23 meeting; ECB-Watch.eu confirms ~90% implied hold probability. The ECB raised the deposit rate to 2.25% on June 11, 2026 (first hike since 2023, responding to the Iran oil shock). July is not a projections meeting — updated ECB staff forecasts come only in September. An existing Cassandra forecast already predicts a further hike to 2.50% at the September meeting. Polymarket sees 91% for unchanged rate.
The National Electoral Jury (JNE) declared Fujimori the winner on July 3, 2026 with 50.1% of votes (~50,000 margin). Transition office opened. Argentine President Milei announced he will attend. Legal challenge deadlines have passed; no pending claims that could block handover on July 28 — Peru's Independence Day and traditional inauguration date. No Polymarket market found; probability of occurrence very high based on public sources.
Red Bull recorded a landmark year in 2025 with 13.969 billion cans (+10.2% vs. 2024) and group revenue of €12.196bn (+8.6%). Reaching 14 billion cans in 2026 requires only +0.2% growth vs. 2025 — easily achieved even at the conservative 3–5% growth analysts expect. Red Bull is present in 178 countries, with strong momentum in Asia and Latin America; the 2026 FIFA World Cup partnership provides additional uplift. Annual 2026 figures will typically be published in spring 2027. No Polymarket quote available.
The White House confirmed to NBC News on July 11, 2026 that President Trump will allow the bipartisan housing affordability bill to become law tomorrow without his signature. Trump used it as leverage for an election overhaul bill that lacks congressional support. With the deadline expiring, the bill becomes law automatically. Source: NBC News, July 11, 2026.