Saxony-Anhalt state election (Sep 6, 2026): FDP fails to clear the 5% threshold and does not enter the state parliament (confirmed by the state returning officer Saxony-Anhalt)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
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Predicted for 6. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The latest poll (pollytix, Aug 3–8, 2026) has the FDP at 2% in Saxony-Anhalt, far below the 5% threshold. AfD leads at 43%, CDU 23%, Die Linke 13%, SPD 7%, Greens 5%, BSW 4%. The FDP has historically been weak here (2021: 4.2%, narrowly missed); nationally the party remains structurally below 5% post-coalition collapse in 2024. A 3-point gap to the threshold is practically impossible to close within this time frame.
Data basis for this prediction
- pollytix Umfrage Sachsen-Anhalt, 3.–8. Aug. 2026: FDP 2%, AfD 43%, CDU 23%, Linke 13% (Wikipedia: 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt state election)
- Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl 2021: FDP 4,2% – an Sperrklausel gescheitert (Landeswahlleiter ST)
- Bundesweiter FDP-Trend 2026: strukturell unter 5% nach Ampel-Bruch (Forsa/Allensbach, 2025/26)
- Sachsen-Anhalt Wahlrecht: 5%-Sperrklausel (§ 3 Landeswahlgesetz Sachsen-Anhalt)
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] FDP erzielte 6,4 % — übersprang die 5 %-Hürde und zieht in den Landtag ein. Quellen: Wikipedia, bpb.de.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.