🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Global Champagne shipments fell to 266 million bottles in 2025 (–2% vs 271.4 million in 2024; source: The Drinks Business, Jan. 2026), continuing the decline from the 2021 record of 322 million. Q1 2026 shows a further –0.5% YoY decline in the French domestic market. Reaching below 260 million bottles would require an additional –2.3% decline — consistent with the current trend pace. Headwinds include inflation-driven consumer caution, normalization after post-pandemic revenge spending, and competition from Prosecco and Crémant. CIVC typically publishes annual data in January of the following year. No Polymarket market.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
Diageo (Johnnie Walker, Smirnoff, Guinness, Don Julio) already suffered organic revenue declines in FY2024 and FY2025 — structural headwinds from a premiumisation pause, fading post-COVID demand, declining spirits consumption in Latin America, and weakness in China. Brown-Forman (Jack Daniel's) also reported organic decline for Q1 FY2027 (May–July 2026) per open prediction. For H1 FY2027 (July–December 2026), additional pressures include: a strong USD following the Fed hike cycle (4.00% fed funds rate from September 2026) and dampened premium spirits demand from the oil price shock (Brent $97). FactSet analyst consensus August 2026: +0.5% organic — close to zero and within the margin of error for a decline.
🍾 Beverages
✦ AI
After the record of 322 million bottles (2021), Champagne shipments are in structural decline: ~319 million in 2022, ~299 million in 2023 (CIVC). Continued luxury weakness in China (export volume –27% YoY H1 2026), rising input costs, and saturated key markets (USA, France, UK) point to further contraction. At –5 to –7% p.a. decline (2022–2025 trend), 2026 volume would be approximately 262–271 million bottles — well below the 280 million threshold. No prediction market signal available. Confirmed via CIVC annual report or Reuters by January 31, 2027.