📈 Economy · Next Week

WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX Front-Month) closes above $88.00/barrel on July 31, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 23. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

63%

WTI was at ~$85.23/barrel on July 23, having briefly hit $88 intraday (+4% in a single session, 6-week high). Polymarket assigns 74% probability that WTI touches $90 by July 31 (vol. >$10M); our $88 closing threshold is below that, making this a more conservative calibration. Supporting factors: escalating Houthi Red Sea attacks (separate prediction), existing IRGC/Hormuz tensions, peak summer demand. Risk: OPEC+ oversupply or abrupt de-escalation.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket Oil Predictions: 74 % WTI ≥ $90 in July 2026 (Stand 23.07.2026, Vol. ~$10 Mio.)
Forbes Advisor: Crude Oil Price Today, July 20, 2026 – WTI ~$85–86/bbl
Reuters via Wikipedia: WTI surges >4% to 6-week high $88 on geopolitical tensions (Juli 2026)
Robinhood Prediction Market: Oil Price WTI Jul 23, 2026 (Intraday $85.23)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

WTI-Rohöl schloss am 31. Juli 2026 bei ca. 84,67 USD/Barrel (Quellen: fedprimerate.com historische Preistabelle, bestätigt durch Investing.com; der Robinhood-Prediction-Market zeigt das Segment '$84,00–$84,99' als aufgelösten Bereich). Das ist deutlich unter der Schwelle von 88,00 USD. Die kurzfristige Rallye auf ~88 USD am 23. Juli war ein Intraday-Spike, der sich nicht halten ließ; bis Monatsende bildete WTI laut technischer Analyse (fxdailyreport.com) ein Kopf-Schulter-Muster mit der rechten Schulter knapp unter 85 USD aus. Die Geopolitik-Prämie (Houthi-Angriffe, Hormus-Spannungen) reichte nicht aus, um den Rücklauf zu verhindern – möglicherweise durch OPEC+-Angebotssorgen und eine Abschwächung der saisonalen Nachfrage kompensiert.

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