📈 Economy · Tomorrow

WTI Crude Oil (NYMEX Front-Month) closes above $81.00 per barrel on July 15, 2026

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. July 2026 · Predicted for 15. July 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

62%

WTI was trading at ~$79.56 on July 14 (+2.0% intraday). Trump reimposed the Hormuz blockade and announced a 20% fee on all Hormuz cargo. The US struck Iran for the third consecutive day. Polymarket assigns 50% to WTI hitting $80 in July 2026. A close above $81 requires a +1.8% daily move — plausible given the ongoing escalation (Iran fired missiles at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain). The existing Cassandra prediction of >$77 on July 15 is compatible; $81 is the more ambitious threshold.

Data basis for this prediction

CNBC: 'U.S. crude jumps above $80 as Iran ceasefire fractures; Trump's Hormuz toll plans reignite supply fears' (14. Juli 2026)
FX Leaders: 'WTI Oil Price Forecast: Crude Rebounds to $79.50 as the Iran Deal Resets the Market' (14. Juli 2026)
Polymarket: ~50 % für WTI ↑ $80 in Juli 2026 (Stand ca. 8. Juli 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

[Vorzeitig entschieden] WTI lag am 15. Juli bei ~$79,75 – unterhalb der $81,00-Schlussstand-Schwelle. Analysten sehen Widerstand bei $80,53; Käufer hatten bei $81,34 bereits nachgelassen. Ein Tagesschluss über $81 ist damit ausgeschlossen. (Quelle: FX Leaders)

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