⚽ Sports · Tomorrow

World Athletics Budapest 2026: Grant Holloway (USA) wins the men's 110m hurdles final (11 September 2026, confirmed by World Athletics by 12 September 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 10. September 2026 · Predicted for 11. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

45%

Grant Holloway (USA), 2024 Olympic champion and three-time world champion, faces his toughest rival in Budapest's opening evening: compatriot Ja'Kobe Tharp, who set a world record of 12.75 sec in June 2026. Holloway has superior championship-IQ (unbeaten in WC finals 2019, 2022, 2023), but Tharp is currently the fastest man on the circuit. Aggregated bookmaker odds imply ~44–46% for Holloway ahead of Tharp (~35%). No Polymarket/Kalshi odds for individual athletics events; calibrated on aggregated bookmaker data.

Data basis for this prediction

World Athletics Budapest 2026 Schedule: 110m-H-Finale Männer, 11. September 2026, Nat. Athletics Centre Budapest (worldathletics.org, Sept 2026)
Ja'Kobe Tharp: neuer 110m-Hürden-Weltrekord 12,75 s (Juni 2026, worldathletics.org / NBC Sports)
Grant Holloway: 2024 Olympic Champion Paris, 3x Weltmeister (Team USA, NBC Sports, 2024)
Buchmacherquoten aggregiert: Holloway ~2,20–2,25 (impliziert ~44–45%), Stand 10.09.2026

Verdict: Miss

Ja'Kobe Tharp (USA) gewann das 110-m-Hürdenfinale am 11. September 2026 in Budapest in 12,94 s – denkbar knapp (0,01 s) vor Cordell Tinch (12,95 s). Grant Holloway startete gar nicht: Er hatte sich im März 2026 einen Hamstring-Riss zugezogen und bestritt in der gesamten Saison 2026 kein einziges Rennen. Damit entfiel nicht nur der vorhergesagte Sieger, sondern der Ausgang war für Holloway aus strukturellen Gründen unmöglich. Die Vorhersage unterschätzte Tharps aktuelle Form und konnte Holloways Verletzung naturgemäß nicht einpreisen. Quellen: worldathletics.org – Rennbericht, nbcsports.com – Ergebnisse, auburntigers.com – Tharp-Meldung.

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