⚽ Sports · Tomorrow

2026 World Cup Final (Spain vs. Argentina) goes to extra time or penalty shootout (MetLife Stadium, July 19)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 18. July 2026 · Predicted for 19. July 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

30%

The 2026 WC Final will not be decided within 90 minutes. Historical base rate: ~30–35% of all WC finals have gone to extra time (2022: Argentina–France 3–3 aet, 4–2 pens; 2010: Spain–Netherlands 1–0 aet; 2006 and 1994 also penalties). Kalshi gives Spain ~61% win probability (July 18, 2026, via Fortune/Kalshi). Both teams are defensively disciplined — Argentina's Martínez, Spain's structured midfield press. No dedicated extra-time market; base rate and tactical analysis yield ~30%.

Data basis for this prediction

Kalshi: Spanien ~61 % Siegchance WM-Finale 2026 (Stand 18.07.2026, Fortune.com/Kalshi)
FIFA WM-Finalstatistik 1930–2022: ~30 % gehen in Verlängerung (FIFA.com)
WM 2022 Finale: Argentinien – Frankreich 3:3 n.V., 4:2 i.E. (FIFA, Dezember 2022)

Verdict: Hit

Das WM-Finale 2026 (Spanien – Argentinien, MetLife Stadium, 19. Juli 2026) endete 1:0 nach Verlängerung. Ferran Torres erzielte das einzige Tor in der 106. Minute. Die regulären 90 Minuten blieben torlos (0:0). Ein Elfmeterschießen war nicht nötig, da Torres in der Verlängerung traf. Die Vorhersage, das Spiel gehe über 90 Minuten hinaus (Verlängerung oder Elfmeterschießen), trat damit vollständig ein. Begünstigend wirkten: Argentiniens Torwart Martínez mit starken Paraden und die Rote Karte für Enzo Fernández in der Nachspielzeit der regulären Zeit. Quellen: FIFA Match Centre (fifa.com), ESPN, NBC News, Sportschau/ZDF.

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