2026 WC semi-final France–Spain (Jul 14, Dallas): Spain score at least one goal
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 12. July 2026
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Predicted for 14. July 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
France is at ~39% WC winner on Polymarket, implying ~75–78% semi-final win probability. Yet Spain's attack around Lamine Yamal is among the tournament's most dangerous; Spain beat Belgium 2-1 in the quarter-finals. A complete France clean sheet against this Spanish squad seems unlikely. Historically, the underdog side scored in 5 of 6 WC semi-finals from 2018–2022. Predicting Spain to score does not contradict the existing 'France beats Spain' prediction — France can win 2-1 or 2-2 AET.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket WM-Gesamtsieger: Frankreich 39%, England 21%, Argentinien 17%, Spanien 12% (polymarket.com, Stand 12.07.2026)
- Spanien besiegt Belgien 2:1 im WM-Viertelfinale (Merino-Siegtreffer, olympics.com, Juli 2026)
- WM-Halbfinale-Scoring-Rate 2018–2022: Unterlegenes Team trifft in 5/6 Spielen (FIFA Match Data)
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Spanien hat in der 22. Minute durch Mikel Oyarzabal (Elfmeter nach Foul von Digne an Yamal) das 1:0 erzielt. Durch zahlreiche Quellen (Yahoo Sports, NBC Sports, ZDF-Liveticker, fussballnationalmannschaft.net) bis zur Halbzeit bestätigt. Das Tor ist unumkehrbar – 'mindestens ein Tor für Spanien' ist erfüllt.
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