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Vuelta a España 2026: Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, SLO) wins the Stage 18 Individual Time Trial (32.5 km, El Puerto de Santa María → Jerez de la Frontera, September 10, 2026, confirmed by UCI or lavuelta.es by September 10, 2026)
Probability
62%
The 32.5 km ITT is the last genuine performance test of Vuelta 2026. Roglič sits at +2:10 behind GC leader Mas. As a three-time Vuelta overall winner and Olympic ITT gold medallist (Tokyo 2021), he is historically the strongest time trialist in the field. Bookmaker odds imply ~62% for a stage win. Key rivals: Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) and Richard Carapaz (+4:24 GC). A Roglič stage win does not contradict the open GC predictions (Mas overall, Gall P2, Roglič P3).
Data basis for this prediction
- GC nach Etappe 15: Mas 1., Gall +2:06, Roglič +2:10, Carapaz +4:24 (CyclingNews, 6. Sep 2026)
- Etappe 18: 32,5 km ITT, El Puerto de Santa María – Jerez de la Frontera (UCI/lavuelta.es)
- Buchmacherquoten implizieren ~62 % Etappensieg Roglič (aggregiert, Stand 7. Sep 2026)
- Roglič: 3× Vuelta-Sieger, Olympia-Gold ITT Tokio 2021 (UCI/Wikipedia)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.