⚽ Sports · Next Week

Vuelta a España 2026: Primož Roglič (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe, SLO) wins the Stage 18 Individual Time Trial (32.5 km, El Puerto de Santa María → Jerez de la Frontera, September 10, 2026, confirmed by UCI or lavuelta.es by September 10, 2026)

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 7. September 2026 · Predicted for 10. September 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

62%

The 32.5 km ITT is the last genuine performance test of Vuelta 2026. Roglič sits at +2:10 behind GC leader Mas. As a three-time Vuelta overall winner and Olympic ITT gold medallist (Tokyo 2021), he is historically the strongest time trialist in the field. Bookmaker odds imply ~62% for a stage win. Key rivals: Stefan Küng (Groupama-FDJ) and Richard Carapaz (+4:24 GC). A Roglič stage win does not contradict the open GC predictions (Mas overall, Gall P2, Roglič P3).

Data basis for this prediction

GC nach Etappe 15: Mas 1., Gall +2:06, Roglič +2:10, Carapaz +4:24 (CyclingNews, 6. Sep 2026)
Etappe 18: 32,5 km ITT, El Puerto de Santa María – Jerez de la Frontera (UCI/lavuelta.es)
Buchmacherquoten implizieren ~62 % Etappensieg Roglič (aggregiert, Stand 7. Sep 2026)
Roglič: 3× Vuelta-Sieger, Olympia-Gold ITT Tokio 2021 (UCI/Wikipedia)

Verdict: Miss

Die Vorhersage, dass Roglič das Einzelzeitfahren der 18. Etappe (El Puerto de Santa María → Jerez de la Frontera, 10. September 2026) gewinnt, ist nicht eingetreten. Sieger wurde Stefan Küng (Tudor Pro Cycling Team) mit einem Vorsprung von nur 2–3 Sekunden auf Callum Thornley (Red Bull-Bora-Hansgrohe). Roglič belegte Platz 4 und verlor rund 19 Sekunden auf Küng. Mas behielt das rote Trikot. Quellen: Cyclingnews (https://www.cyclingnews.com/pro-cycling/racing/vuelta-a-espana-stefan-kung-wins-stage-18-time-trial-while-enric-mas-maintains-lead-over-inspired-ride-by-primoz-roglic/), Cycling Weekly (https://www.cyclingweekly.com/racing/vuelta-a-espana/stefan-kung-wins-the-individual-time-trial-on-stage-18-of-vuelta-a-espana), PezCyclingNews (https://pezcyclingnews.com/racing/vuelta-2026-stage-18-kung-time-trial-mas-roglic/). Roglič fuhr stark, reichte aber nicht für den Etappensieg — Küng war im Zeitfahren schlicht überlegen.

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