📈 Economy
· Next Month
Volkswagen AG (XETRA: VOW3) reports a decline in adjusted operating profit (EBIT) of more than 10% year-over-year versus H1 2025 in the H1 2026 results (publication July 24, 2026)
Probability
65%
VW reported an adjusted operating profit of €2.5B in Q1 2026, down 14.3% from Q1 2025 (€2.9B). Management explicitly warned that planned cost cuts are insufficient. The full-year guidance of a 4.0–5.5% EBIT margin implies significant H2 improvement from a very weak H1 base. Q2 may be marginally better than Q1 (seasonal normalization, new model ramp), but an H1 decline exceeding 10% appears highly probable. Risk factors: China weakness, ID. overcapacity, restructuring costs, tariff effects.
Data basis for this prediction
- VW Q1 2026: Bereinigtes EBIT 2,5 Mrd. EUR (–14,3 % vs. Q1 2025, Volkswagen-Group.com, 30.04.2026)
- CNBC: VW warnt, Kostensenkungen reichen nicht – 14 % Q1-Gewinnrückgang (30.04.2026)
- VW FY2026 Prognose: EBIT-Marge 4,0–5,5 %, Umsatzwachstum 0–+3 % (VW Group IR, 2026)
- VW H1 2026 Ergebnistermin: 24. Juli 2026 (Volkswagen Group Finanzkalender)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] VW Halbjahrsbericht 2026 (veröffentlicht 24. Juli): Q1 EBIT 2,5 Mrd. EUR (−14,3 %) + Q2 EBIT 3,5 Mrd. EUR (−ca. 10 %) = H1 2026 ca. 6,0 Mrd. EUR vs. H1 2025 ca. 6,7 Mrd. EUR → Rückgang ca. 10,4 %, damit mehr als 10 %. Quellen: CNBC 24. Juli, VW Interim Report PDF (vw-mms.de).