🏛️ Politics · Next Week

USA imposes OFAC secondary sanctions on at least one Chinese company or bank for trading with the Iranian energy sector by July 25, 2026

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 14. July 2026 · Predicted for 25. July 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

52%

Per existing prediction, the USA has already imposed expanded secondary sanctions against Iran by July 18, 2026 (in response to the Hormuz crisis). Historically, within 1–2 weeks of Iran sanctions escalations, OFAC targets third-country actors circumventing sanctions: Chinese intermediaries and 'teapot refineries' buying discounted Iranian oil were repeatedly designated in the 2018/2019/2020 cycles. With oil price pressure from the Hormuz blockade, Washington faces strong political pressure to curb Chinese sanctions-busting. Own estimate: ~52%.

Data basis for this prediction

Bestehende Prognose: USA verhängen erweiterte Sekundärsanktionen gegen Iran bis 18. Juli 2026
OFAC Iran-Sanktionsmuster 2018–2020: chinesische Entitäten binnen 2 Wochen nach Eskalation belegt
Brent Crude Oil (ICE): ~78,73 USD/bbl am 13. Juli 2026 – Iran-Risikoprämie eingepreist
Forbes: Brent öffnet bei 75,99 USD am 13. Juli, steigt auf 78,73 (+3,54%) (Forbes Advisor, 13. Juli 2026)

Verdict: Hit

[Vorzeitig entschieden] OFAC verhängte Sekundärsanktionen gegen chinesische Teapot-Raffinerie Hengli Petrochemical (Dalian) im April 2026 wegen Kauf von Milliarden Dollar an iranischem Rohöl sowie gegen Shandong Shengxing Chemical. Bestätigt durch US Treasury Press Releases (sb0472, sb0476), CNBC (25. April 2026).

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Berlin state election (20 September 2026): SPD receives more than 18.0% of valid votes cast (confirmed by Berlin Returning Officer or tagesschau.de by 21 September 2026)

The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.

65%

Next Month · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election (September 20, 2026): FDP falls below 5.0% of valid votes and fails to enter the Abgeordnetenhaus (confirmed by Berlin returning officer or tagesschau.de by September 21, 2026)

Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.

92%

Next Week · Predicted for 20. Sep 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Swedish Riksdag election (September 13, 2026): Liberalerna (L) falls below 4.0% and fails to clear the parliamentary threshold (confirmed by Valmyndigheten by September 14, 2026)

Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.

88%

Next Week · Predicted for 13. Sep 2026