🏛️ Politics · Next Year

USA and Iran sign a formal nuclear agreement (JCPOA successor) by December 31, 2026 (confirmed by IAEA, US State Department, or Reuters/AFP)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 26. August 2026 · Predicted for 31. December 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

66%

Polymarket prices a 66% probability of a US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027 (as of August 26, 2026). Iran's economy has been devastated after months of war and intensified US sanctions: food prices more than doubled since July 2025, USD blockade active, IRGC financing under extreme pressure. Trump said he is 'not in a hurry' but negotiations are ongoing; Oman is actively mediating. A nuclear off-ramp is politically far easier to achieve than comprehensive peace (separate open prediction: no peace treaty before September 2026) or a lasting ceasefire. Iran has historically concluded deals even under extreme pressure (JCPOA 2015). This prediction refers exclusively to a nuclear framework agreement, not a peace or ceasefire treaty.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: US-Iran Nuclear Deal vor 2027 = 66% (abgerufen 26.08.2026, via Laika Labs)
Al Jazeera Iran-Krieg Liveblog, 26.08.2026: Verhandlungen laufen, Hormuz noch geschlossen
Iran-Wirtschaft: Lebensmittelpreise +100% seit Juli 2025, USD-Blockade (CNN, Aug 2026)
Trump: 'not in a hurry' über Teheran-Gespräche; Oman-Vermittlung aktiv (Al Jazeera, 22.08.2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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