US Midterm Elections (November 3, 2026): Democratic Party wins majority in the US House of Representatives (at least 218 seats, confirmed by AP projection or official results)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. August 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Polymarket implies 88.5% probability of Democrats winning the House in 2026. Historically, the governing party loses ~26 House seats; the current slim Republican majority (~217–212) means a net swing of 5–7 seats flips control. Generic ballot shows Democrats ahead by 4–6 points. Risks: Republican gerrymandering (Texas, Florida, Georgia), high incumbency retention, Trump base turnout. Market anchor at 88.5% is the primary calibration; deviation would require a marked economic upswing and rising Trump approval.
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: Democrats win US House 2026 — 88,5 % (Stand 23. August 2026, polymarket.com)
- Cook Political Report / Sabato's Crystal Ball: House race ratings August 2026 — Mehrheit der Wettbewerbssitze kippt zu Democrats
- Historische Midterm-Verluste der Regierungspartei: Durchschnitt −26 Sitze (1946–2022, US House Archives)
- Generic Ballot: Demokraten +4–6 Pp (RealClearPolitics/FiveThirtyEight-Aggregat, August 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.