US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June 2026: Monthly Change Negative (Below 0.0%) – Release July 14, 2026
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
·
Predicted for 14. July 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
The headline US CPI for June 2026 is likely to print negative on a monthly basis for the first time in months. Driver: gasoline prices fell ~10% in June as Brent crude dropped ~21% following the mid-June US-Iran MoU. BMO forecasts -0.1% MoM; the Kalshi prediction market shows -0.1% as the most likely outcome (37%), followed by -0.2% (33%) and 0.0% (15%) — aggregate probability of a negative print ~70%. Core CPI (ex-energy/food) remains firm at ~+0.2% to +0.3% MoM. This is complementary to existing open YoY forecasts (>3.5% / >3.0%), which remain achievable via the base-year effect. Note: May 2026 actual MoM was +0.5% — the reversal is dramatic.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi Prediction Market: CPI MoM Juni 2026 – -0,1 % wahrscheinlichster Wert (37 %), negativ ~70 % gesamt (FutureSearch/Kalshi, Stand 13. Juli 2026)
- BMO-Prognose: -0,1 % MoM für Juni 2026 (Kiplinger CPI-Preview, Juli 2026)
- BLS/CNBC: Mai 2026 CPI +0,5 % MoM, YoY +4,2 % (BLS-Release 10. Juni 2026)
- Brent Crude Jun-2026 Einbruch: ~21 % nach US-Iran-MoU (Hintergrund via NPR/CNN, Juni 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-CPI Juni 2026 monatliche Veränderung = −0,1 % (negativ, unter 0,0 %). Bestätigt durch investing.com-Wirtschaftskalender, Release 14. Juli 2026 12:30 UTC: Actual −0.1 %, Previous (Mai) +0.5 %.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.