US CPI August 2026 (BLS, September 11, 2026): Headline rate above 3.3% year-on-year (confirmed by BLS press release or Bloomberg by September 11, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. September 2026
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Predicted for 11. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Kalshi prices >3.3% YoY at 64% (~127,000 open contracts). July 2026 headline CPI was 3.4% YoY; tariff pass-through from Trump tariffs effective August 7 sustains upward pressure. Cleveland Fed nowcast: +0.35% MoM. Polymarket prices +0.4% MoM at 49% (highest single bracket). This prediction adds a tighter threshold than the existing open '>3.2% headline' prediction and is independent of the existing Core CPI >3.4% prediction. Probability anchored directly to Kalshi market price of 64%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi CPI YoY >3,3% Marktpreis: 64¢ (Stand 3. September 2026)
- Polymarket August MoM CPI: +0,4% bei 49% (Stand 3. September 2026)
- BLS CPI Juli 2026: 3,4% YoY (Veröffentlichung 13. August 2026)
- Cleveland Fed Nowcast August CPI: ~+0,35% MoM (Stand 2. September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] CPI August 2026 'accelerates' von Juli-Stand 3,4% bedeutet >3,4%, also >3,3%. GBP/USD-Rückgang trotz vorab formulierter 'softer CPI'-Erwartung bestätigt dass der Print nicht weich war. Quelle: Trading Economics / BLS.
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✦ AI
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📈 Economy
✦ AI
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