US Consumer Price Index August 2026 (release September 11, 2026): Core CPI (ex food & energy) exceeds 3.0% year-over-year (confirmed by BLS press release by September 11, 2026)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 10. September 2026
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Predicted for 11. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The headline CPI rate for August 2026 is expected above 3.2% YoY per an existing open prediction. Core CPI is the Fed's preferred inflation metric and tends to run slightly below headline when energy prices are high (Brent currently ~$101/barrel), but is more persistent. Polymarket/Kalshi price a 53–58% probability of a Fed rate hike on September 16; a core CPI above 3% would reinforce those expectations and is the more decisive figure for the FOMC. Fed Chair Warsh has sent hawkish signals; the strong August labour market (+162,000 jobs) supports rate-hike expectations. Own estimate: ~68%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Brent crude oil Sep 10, 2026: ~$101.14/barrel (Fortune.com Sep 8, 2026 / Investing.com)
- Kalshi/Polymarket Fed rate hike probability Sep 16, 2026: ~53–58% (PredictionMarketsPicks.com / OddsShopper.com, Sep 2026)
- August jobs report: +162,000 non-farm payrolls, hawkish signals from Fed Chair Warsh (DeFiRate.com / CoinGabbar, Sep 2026)
- BLS CPI release schedule: August 2026 CPI due September 11, 2026 (bls.gov)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Kernrate (Core CPI ex Lebensmittel & Energie) lag im August 2026 bei ca. 2,4–2,5% YoY – weit unter der 3,0%-Schwelle. Quelle: BLS August 2026 / Trading Economics Core CPI.
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