US Treasuries: 10-year yield (^TNX) closes above 4.85% on September 30, 2026 (confirmed by Bloomberg or U.S. Treasury Direct by September 30, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. September 2026
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Predicted for 30. September 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
The 10-year US Treasury yield stood at 4.96–4.97% on September 22, 2026, hitting an intra-month high of 5.01% in September. The structural environment argues against a significant decline by month-end: (1) the Core PCE deflator is due September 30 — platform prediction ≥3.1% YoY, which would confirm inflationary pressure; (2) Fed Funds futures price in a 25bp hike on October 28, 2026 (open platform prediction). Closing below 4.85% would require a ~12bp decline — realistic only in the event of an unexpected geopolitical shock or major growth surprise. No Polymarket quote available for US yields.
Data basis for this prediction
- US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 4,97 % (Trading Economics, 22.09.2026)
- September-Intra-Monatshoch: 5,01 % (CNBC Markets, 16.09.2026)
- CME FedWatch Tool: Fed-Zinserhöhung Oktober 2026 eingepreist (abgerufen 23.09.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die 10-jährige US-Treasury-Rendite schloss am 30. September 2026 bei ca. 5,29 % (Intraday-Hoch: 5,31 %), weit oberhalb der Schwelle von 4,85 %. Laut Suchergebnissen (u.a. Helious.io-Meldung 'U.S. 10-year Treasury yield crosses 5.30% to highest since…' vom 30.09.2026 sowie historische Daten von TradingEconomics/Investing.com: Open 5,238 %, High 5,306 %, Low 5,201 %, Close ~5,29 %) war die Vorhersage klar erfüllt. Die Rendite lag sogar rund 44 Basispunkte über dem geforderten Niveau, gestützt durch anhaltenden Inflationsdruck und die eingepreiste Fed-Zinserhöhung.
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