🏛️ Politics
· Next Month
US Senate Texas 2026 (3 November 2026): Ken Paxton (R) wins the Texas Senate race against James Talarico (D) (confirmed by AP or NBC News by 4 November 2026)
Probability
52%
The Texas Senate race is the closest midterm contest: Kalshi has Paxton at 52%, Polymarket narrowly favours Talarico at 51% (as of 10 Sep 2026). Over $10.6M traded on Kalshi. This prediction reflects Paxton's structural advantage in Texas: the state has not elected a Democratic US Senator since 1988. Paxton's edge with rural and conservative voters outweighs Talarico's strong fundraising and lead with independents, Hispanics, and young voters. Polymarket shows 49% for Paxton – a genuine coin-flip; calibrated slightly to Paxton given Texas's historical base.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: Paxton 52%, Talarico 48% – Texas Senate Winner Market (DeFi Rate / predictionhunt.com, Stand 10.09.2026)
- Polymarket: Talarico 51%, Paxton 49% – Texas Senate Election Winner (polymarket.com, Stand 10.09.2026)
- Kalshi Texas-Senate-Market: >$10,6 Mio. Handelsvolumen seit August 2026 (DeFi Rate, 10.09.2026)
- Texas Senatswahl-Historie: kein demokratischer US-Senator in Texas seit Lloyd Bentsen 1988 (AP-Archiv)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.