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US Open 2026 Men's Singles: Carlos Alcaraz (ESP) wins the title (final September 13, 2026, Flushing Meadows, confirmed by USTA or ATP by September 13, 2026)
Probability
50%
Alcaraz is the clear market favorite: Polymarket at 47.5%, DraftKings at 55% (as of September 6–7, 2026). He faces Ben Shelton in the quarterfinal (Tuesday, September 9) – Alcaraz won all three previous head-to-head encounters. Frances Tiafoe plays the second QF against Michelsen, guaranteeing an American semifinalist. A final against Zverev (Polymarket 24.3%) is the most likely scenario. Alcaraz is the defending champion. Polymarket anchor: 47.5% → forecast 50% (slight upward adjustment for crowd-factor and H2H dominance).
Data basis for this prediction
- Polymarket: 'Men's US Open 2026 Winner' – Alcaraz 47,5 %, Zverev 24,3 %, Shelton 10 % (Stand 7. September 2026)
- DraftKings Predictions: Alcaraz 55 %, Zverev 26 % (Stand 7. September 2026)
- CBS Sports: US Open 2026 schedule – Alcaraz vs. Shelton QF, Tiafoe vs. Michelsen QF confirmed (7. September 2026)
- Japan Times / usopen.org: Shelton defeats Tsitsipas, sets Alcaraz QF (6./7. September 2026)
Verdict: Miss
Carlos Alcaraz gewann den US Open 2026 nicht. Stattdessen siegte Alexander Zverev (GER) im Finale am 13. September 2026 gegen Ben Shelton (USA) mit 6-3, 7-6(2), 5-7, 6-2. Alcaraz schied bereits im Viertelfinale aus – offenbar gegen Ben Shelton, der dann ins Finale vordrang. Zverev war zwar in der Vorhersage als möglicher Finalgegner genannt (Polymarket 24,3 %), aber das Finale verlief Zverev vs. Shelton statt Alcaraz vs. Zverev. Quellen: USTA (usopen.org), CNN, Al Jazeera, Wikipedia (2026 US Open – Men's singles).