Federal Reserve holds key rate unchanged at 3.75–4.00% at the October 27–28, 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg by October 28, 2026, 3:00 PM ET)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. October 2026
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Predicted for 28. October 2026
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Based on: Ongoing Event
Kalshi shows ~73–78% probability of an unchanged rate at the October FOMC meeting (Oct 27–28, 2026); Polymarket shows ~65% hold, ~35% hike (as of Oct 3, 2026). The surprisingly weak September 2026 US jobs report (NFP: only 29,000 new jobs vs. 90,000 consensus estimate; unemployment rising from 4.1% to 4.2%) shifted rate-hike expectations from October to December. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly fell to 5.18% before recovering to ~5.28%. DeFiRate and predictionmarketspicks.com see hold at 17–21% hike probability after the NFP shock. Current rate: 3.75–4.00%; any final hike would come in December — consistent with an existing Cassandra December-FOMC forecast.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi KXFEDDECISION-26OCT: 73–78 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Stand 3.10.2026)
- Polymarket Fed-Rates-Dashboard: 65 % Hold / 35 % Hike Oktober (Stand 3.10.2026)
- CNBC/FXStreet: NFP September 2026 nur 29.000 — Arbeitslosigkeit 4,2 % (2.10.2026)
- QZ: Treasury-Renditen sinken nach NFP-Schock; Hike-Erwartungen auf Dezember verschoben (2.10.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Fed hielt den Leitzins auf der FOMC-Sitzung vom 27./28. Oktober 2026 unverändert bei 3,75–4,00 %. Der FOMC stimmte mit 10:2 für eine Zinspause; die beiden Gegenstimmen (Gov. Lisa Cook und Cleveland-Fed-Präsidentin Beth Hammack) votierten für eine Anhebung um 25 Basispunkte. Damit trat die Vorhersage exakt ein. Quellen: Fed-Pressemitteilung (federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm), CNBC ('Fed holds rates steady', 28.10.2026), CNN ('Fed keeps interest rates unchanged', 28.10.2026). Nach der Entscheidung stieg die Dezember-Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit laut CME FedWatch auf 82,6 % – konsistent mit der in der Vorhersage erwähnten Dezember-FOMC-Erwartung.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.