Federal Reserve raises the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 4.00–4.25% at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by Federal Reserve press release or Bloomberg by October 28, 2026, 15:00 ET)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. September 2026
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Predicted for 28. October 2026
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Based on: Statistical Pattern
Fed futures price a market-implied probability of 65.4% (centralbank.watch) to 75.8% (CME FedWatch, September 25, 2026) for a 25bp hike at the October 28 FOMC. The current target range is 3.75–4.00% following the September 16, 2026 hike — the first since 2023. The October meeting is not a projection meeting (no new staff forecasts), limiting the scope for surprises. US Core PCE August 2026 is forecast at ≥3.1% YoY by platform predictions; ISM Manufacturing above 55 points signals economic strength. A hawkish NFP print on October 2 would further cement expectations. Polymarket sees ~69%. Calibrated at 70% (midpoint of the 65–76% source range).
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch Tool (25. September 2026): 75,8 % Wahrscheinlichkeit +25 bp, FOMC-Sitzung 28. Oktober 2026
- centralbank.watch (28. September 2026): 65,4 % für +25 bp / 34,6 % Hold / 0 % Cut, 28. Oktober 2026
- Fed-Leitzinsentscheid 16. September 2026: Anhebung auf 3,75–4,00 % (einstimmig, erste seit 2023)
- Plattformprognose US-Kern-PCE August 2026: ≥3,1 % YoY (BEA-Veröffentlichung 30. September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Die Fed hat auf der FOMC-Sitzung vom 28. Oktober 2026 den Leitzins NICHT erhöht, sondern unverändert bei 3,75–4,00 % belassen. Das Abstimmungsergebnis war 10:2 – nur zwei Mitglieder (Gouverneurin Lisa Cook und Cleveland-Fed-Präsidentin Beth Hammack) stimmten für eine Anhebung um 25 bp. Trotz der in der Vorhersage genannten hawkischen Indikatoren (erhöhte Kerninflation, starke ISM-Werte) entschied sich die Mehrheit des FOMC für eine Pause. Die marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit für eine Dezember-Erhöhung stieg nach dem Entscheid auf 82,6 %, was zeigt, dass der Markt die Anhebung auf Dezember verschoben sieht. Quellen: federalreserve.gov (FOMC-Pressemitteilung 28.10.2026), CNBC, CNN, finanznachrichten.de.
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