US Nonfarm Payrolls (August 2026, released 4 September 2026): Job gains come in below 110,000
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 21. August 2026
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Predicted for 4. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
July 2026 NFP came in at only 73,000 (preliminary figure: –23,000 seasonally adjusted) — one of the weakest monthly readings in years. August consensus (FactSet): ~110,000; Capital Economics: 90,000; bulls at 140,000. Despite an expected rebound effect (base effect, seasonality), the labor market remains structurally under pressure: July retail sales –0.6% MoM (well below +0.1% consensus); Michigan Consumer Sentiment August: 51 (vs. 54.5 expected). Another weak print below 110,000 would cement September Fed pause expectations and is plausible given the continued economic softness. Confirmation via Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) press release of 4 September 2026.
Data basis for this prediction
- Juli 2026 NFP: 73.000 (vorläufig –23.000 saisonbereinigt) — stark unter Konsens (BLS, August 2026)
- August NFP-Konsens: ~110.000 (FactSet); Capital Economics: 90.000 (Morningstar / Consensus, Aug 2026)
- Juli US-Einzelhandelsumsätze: –0,6 % MoM vs. Konsens +0,1 % (US Census Bureau, August 2026)
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment August 2026: 51 vs. 54,5 erwartet (University of Michigan, Aug 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] NFP August 2026: +22.000 Stellen – weit unter der Schwelle von 110.000. Quelle: BLS / CNBC.
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