US Non-Farm Payrolls August 2026 (BLS, release 4 September 2026): Net employment change below 120,000 new jobs (confirmed by BLS press release or Bloomberg)
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 25. August 2026
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Predicted for 4. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The US labour market shows a drastic cooldown: May 2026 +63,000, June 2026 +20,000 (both subsequently revised sharply lower), July 2026 –23,000 (first net job loss since 2020). Capital Economics forecasts only +90,000 for August – driven by immigration restrictions and weakening aggregate demand. The 120,000 bar therefore sits well above the running trend. Another weak print or a further downward revision appears more likely than a rebound above 120,000.
Data basis for this prediction
- BLS – Employment Situation Summary July 2026: –23,000 NFP (7. Aug 2026)
- CNBC – Jobs Report July 2026 (7. Aug 2026)
- Capital Economics – US Employment Report Preview August 2026: +90,000 Prognose
- Trading Economics – US Non-Farm Payrolls historische Reihe (Stand Aug 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] NFP August 2026: +162.000 neue Stellen – weit über dem Schwellenwert 120.000. Quelle: BLS.
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