🏛️ Politics · Next Year

US Midterms November 3, 2026: Democratic Party wins majority in the US House of Representatives (at least 218 seats, confirmed by AP projection or official results)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 27. August 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

85%

Polymarket prices as of August 27, 2026 an 88% probability for Democrats in the US House race (Midterms, November 3, 2026). Metaculus sees 86.5%. Generic congressional ballot: Democrats with +5-7 point national lead. Historically, the president's party loses an average of 28 House seats in midterms; with Trump (Republican) in the White House, structural forces are clearly against the GOP. This prediction does not contradict the existing open prediction that Republicans retain the Senate – Polymarket views a divided Congress (R Senate/D House) as the most likely scenario (39% in the Balance of Power market). Minimal deviation from Polymarket anchor (88%) for remaining uncertainty over candidate quality and local races.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen US-Repräsentantenhaus 2026: 88 % (polymarket.com, Stand 27.8.2026)
Metaculus: Demokraten kontrollieren Repräsentantenhaus nach 2026 Midterms: 86,5 % (metaculus.com, August 2026)
Polymarket Balance-of-Power: D-Sweep 48 %, R-Senat/D-Haus 39 %, R-Sweep 12 % (polymarketanalytics.com)
Generische Wahlabsicht: Demokraten +5–7 Punkte national (cryptobriefing.com / Polymarket, August 2026)

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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