🏛️ Politics · Next Month

US Midterms 2026: James Talarico (Democrat) wins the Texas US Senate seat against Ken Paxton (Republican)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

62%

Polymarket gives James Talarico 62% versus Ken Paxton (40%) for the Texas Senate seat as of September 30, 2026. A Democratic win in Texas would be historic, reflecting demographic shifts in the Austin–Houston–San Antonio–Dallas metro corridor. Paxton is significantly damaged by his 2023 impeachment proceedings and ongoing legal controversies. Metaculus gives Democrats 62% for the Senate majority overall; Polymarket aligns at 62% — Texas is seen as a key component of that majority. Confirmation via AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket 'Texas Senate 2026': Talarico (D) 62 %, Paxton (R) 40 % (Stand 30.09.2026)
Metaculus '2026 US Midterm Elections': Demokraten Senatsmehrheit 62 % (30.09.2026)
Polymarket '2026 Midterms – Senate Control': Demokraten 62 % (30.09.2026)
defirate.com Midterm Odds 2026: Split Congress 36 %, Demo Sweep 39 % (30.09.2026)

Verdict: Hit

James Talarico (Demokraten) gewann die Texas-US-Senatswahl am 3. November 2026 mit ca. 55 % der Stimmen gegen Ken Paxton (Republikaner, ca. 43 %). Laut Texas Tribune, NBC News, CBS News und Houston Public Media beendete dies die 32-jährige republikanische Dominanz bei texanischen Senatswahlen und war der erste demokratische Senatssieg in Texas seit 1988. Die Vorhersage trat vollständig ein – Kandidat, Partei, Gegner und Zeitpunkt stimmen überein. Belege: https://www.texastribune.org/2026/11/03/texas-ken-paxton-james-talarico-us-senate-elections-2026/ und https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-2026-senate-james-talarico-ken-paxton/

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