US Midterm Elections 2026 (November 3, 2026): Republican Party retains or wins majority in the US Senate (at least 51 seats, confirmed by AP projection or official results)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. August 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Metaculus forecasts 59% probability for a Republican Senate majority in 2026. Democrats are simultaneously 86.5% favorites for the House (in existing Cassandra forecasts). The 2026 Senate map has several competitive seats in historically red states, giving Republicans a structural edge. Generic ballot shows Democrats +8 (Polymarket), but Senate maps rarely move 1:1 with national sentiment.
Data basis for this prediction
- Metaculus US Midterms 2026: Republikaner 59% Senatsmehrheit (metaculus.com, Aug. 2026)
- Metaculus US Midterms 2026: Demokraten 86,5% Repräsentantenhaus-Mehrheit (metaculus.com, Aug. 2026)
- Polymarket Generic Congressional Ballot: Demokraten +8 Punkte (polymarket.com, Aug. 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.