🏛️ Politics · Next Month

US Midterms 2026 (November 3, 2026): Democratic Party wins House majority with at least 218 seats (confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 7, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 19. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Statistical Pattern

Probability

84%

Polymarket prices Democrat House majority at 88–90.5% (as of September 19, 2026). Generic Congressional Ballot shows Democrats leading D+7 to D+12; Trump's approval sits around 38% per aggregators. Historically the president's party loses ~26 House seats in midterms — current factors (Iran war, economy, unpopularity) amplify this trend significantly. Democrats need a net gain of ~5 seats for a majority of 218. I calibrate at 84% (slight discount to Polymarket's 88–90.5% for long-horizon uncertainty). The existing open prediction covers only the Senate — the House is a separate event, no duplicate.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 'Which party will win the House in 2026?' – Demokraten 88–90,5 % (Stand 19.09.2026)
Pro.EdgeX Exchange: 'Polymarket Prices Democrats at 88% to Win House in 2026 Midterms' (19.09.2026)
Yahoo News: Generic Congressional Ballot D+7 bis D+12 (RealClearPolitics Aggregator, September 2026)
Metaculus / Polymarket: Trumps Zustimmungswert ~38 % (Aggregator-Durchschnitt, September 2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. NBC News projizierte, dass die Demokraten 258 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus gewinnen – weit über der Schwelle von 218 Sitzen. Laut NBC News (nbcnews.com/politics/2026-elections/house-results) und CBS News (cbsnews.com/live-updates/house-election-results-2026) flippten die Demokraten über 40 Sitze (Nettog gewinn +41) und gewannen die Mehrheit. NBC News projizierte außerdem die vollständige Kontrolle über den Kongress (Haus + Senat) noch innerhalb des 7. November 2026. Alle Bedingungen der Vorhersage – mindestens 218 Sitze, bestätigt durch NBC News bis 7. November 2026 – sind erfüllt.

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