🏛️ Politics · Next Month

US Midterm Elections November 3, 2026: Republican Party retains Senate majority (net ≥51 seats, confirmed by AP or NBC News by November 4, 2026)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 11. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Speculative

Probability

59%

Metaculus (September 2026) gives Republicans ~59% probability of Senate majority; Polymarket and RealClearPolling confirm ~59–62%. Of 35 seats up for election, Republicans currently hold 53 vs. 47 Democrats. Democrats need a net gain of +4 seats — the Senate map favors Republicans (23 R seats vs. 12 D seats in play). Consistent with open Cassandra prediction 'Democrats win House with ≥6 net seats': a split Congress with Democratic House and Republican Senate is the most likely scenario (Metaculus: 49.2%).

Data basis for this prediction

Metaculus 'US Senate plurality after 2026 midterms': Republikaner ~59 % (Stand September 2026)
Polymarket 'Which party will win the Senate in 2026': ~60 % Republikaner (September 2026)
270toWin.com / RealClearPolling Senate Map 2026: Stand September 2026
Metaculus Congressional Control Scenarios: Rep Senate + Dem House 49,2 % wahrscheinlichstes Szenario

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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