US Midterm Elections (November 3, 2026): Republican Party retains its majority in the US Senate (at least 50 seats, confirmed by AP projection or official results)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. August 2026
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Predicted for 3. November 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
Kalshi prediction market: Democratic Senate majority at 46.5 cents, implying ~53.5% probability of Republican control. Polymarket (August 26, 2026): 'D Sweep' 48%, 'R Senate + D House' 39%, 'R Sweep' 12% – implying ~51% probability of Republican Senate combined. The Senate map heavily favors Republicans: 22 Republican vs. 13 Democratic seats are up for election; Democrats need a net gain of 4 seats while defending exposed seats (Michigan, Georgia, New Hampshire). 2026 special elections show ~+10pp Democratic swing vs. 2024, likely insufficient for the Senate. We estimate 58%, slightly above the Kalshi market.
Data basis for this prediction
- Kalshi: Demokraten 46,5 ¢ für Senatsmehrheit → ~53,5 % Republikanisch (270toWin / Kalshi, 26.08.2026)
- Polymarket: Balance of Power 2026 – D Sweep 48 %, R Senate+D House 39 %, R Sweep 12 % (26.08.2026)
- Wikipedia: 2026 US Senate Elections – 22 R vs. 13 D Sitze auf dem Spiel (abgerufen 26.08.2026)
- OddsShopper / Kalshi: Race-by-Race 2026 Senate Odds – NC, GA, IA als Schlüsselrennen (26.08.2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
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Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.