🏛️ Politics · Next Month

US Midterm Elections (November 3, 2026): Democrats win House majority with a net gain of at least 6 seats (confirmed by AP or NBC by November 4, 2026)

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 9. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

83%

Polymarket shows 88% for a Democratic House majority (as of 9.9.2026, ~$10M volume). The national generic ballot shows Democrats leading by ~6-7 points (FiveThirtyEight/Silver Bulletin). President Trump's approval sits at ~42%. Historically, the opposition party gains 25-35 House seats in midterms; Republicans hold a current majority of just ~10 seats. Slight discount from Polymarket's 88% applied for potential 2022-style polling errors.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 88 % Demokraten gewinnen Repräsentantenhaus (Stand: 9.9.2026, ~10 Mio. USD Volumen)
Generic Ballot Average Demokraten +6,4 Punkte – Silver Bulletin/FiveThirtyEight (September 2026)
Trump Zustimmungsrate ~42 % – RealClearPolitics Schnitt (9.9.2026)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist klar eingetreten. Die Demokraten gewannen bei den Midterms am 3. November 2026 die Mehrheit im Repräsentantenhaus mit einem Nettoprofit von ca. 40–50 Sitzen – weit über der Mindestgrenze von 6 Sitzen. CBS News und Al Jazeera bestätigten den demokratischen Mehrheitsgewinn bereits am 4. November 2026 (Al Jazeera: 'Democratic Party gains US House majority in 2026 midterm elections', 4.11.2026). CNN projizierte über 250 Sitze für die Demokraten (254 zu 162 für die Republikaner, 19 Rennen noch offen). Der tatsächliche Zugewinn übertraf die Prognosen deutlich; Trumps Zustimmungsrate lag laut Exit-Polls bei nur 38 %. Quellen: CBS News (cbsnews.com), Al Jazeera (aljazeera.com/news/2026/11/4), CNN (cnn.com/2026/11/05).

Related Predictions

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Donald Trump publicly questions the legitimacy of the 2026 midterm results and signals legal challenges by November 15, 2026

Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).

72%

Next Week · Predicted for 15. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Ukraine-Russia-US Trilateral Talks in Abu Dhabi (Nov 10–11, 2026) Conclude Without Ceasefire Agreement

Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.

76%

Next Week · Predicted for 11. Nov 2026

🏛️ Politics ✦ AI

Alberto Núñez Feijóo (PP) secures parliamentary majority with Vox coalition and becomes Spanish Prime Minister — General Election 29 November 2026 (confirmed by Junta Electoral Central or AP by 1 December 2026)

Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.

83%

Next Month · Predicted for 29. Nov 2026