🏛️ Politics · Next Month

US Midterm Elections (November 3, 2026): Democrats win the majority in the US House of Representatives

Hit ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 8. September 2026 · Predicted for 3. November 2026 · Based on: Ongoing Event

Probability

83%

Democrats are clear favorites to win the House majority according to Polymarket at ~88% (Democratic sweep 52% + D-House/R-Senate 36% = 88%). President Trump's approval ratings are in the late 30s, and Democrats lead the generic ballot by 6-7 points. Historically, the president's party loses ~26 House seats on average in midterms. $11M is traded on Polymarket for this event. Confirmation via AP or NYT by November 4, 2026.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: Demokraten gewinnen Repräsentantenhaus 2026 impliziert ~88 % (D-Sweep 52 % + D-Haus/R-Senat 36 %, $11 Mio. Volumen, Stand 8. September 2026)
Generic Ballot: Demokraten +6–7 Punkte (aggregierte Umfragen, Frühherbst 2026)
Trumps Zustimmungswerte: ~38 % (aggregiert, Stand September 2026)
Historischer Midterm-Schnitt: Partei des Präsidenten verliert im Schnitt 26 Sitze im Repräsentantenhaus (Brookings Institution)

Verdict: Hit

Die Vorhersage ist eingetreten. Die Demokraten gewannen bei den US-Midterm-Wahlen am 3. November 2026 die Mehrheit im Repräsentantenhaus mit einem Nettogeninn von ca. 42 Sitzen (254 D zu 162 R). Das entspricht in der Größenordnung dem historischen Schnitt und den prognostizierten Rahmenbedingungen (Trumps niedrige Zustimmungswerte, deutlicher Generic-Ballot-Vorsprung). Quellen: CBS News (https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/house-election-results-2026/), CNBC (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/11/04/2026-midterm-election-results-live-updates.html), Wikipedia (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections).

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