📈 Economy
· Next Week
US Core PCE Deflator June 2026: annual rate below 3.40% (BEA release, 31 July 2026, confirmed by Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Probability
68%
The Cleveland Fed nowcast for core PCE deflator (YoY) in June 2026 is 3.30%; the Wall Street consensus is estimated at approximately 3.3–3.4%. Prediction markets (RateSpike, Lines.com) assign only ~5% probability to a MoM print ≥0.3%, making a YoY value above 3.4% unlikely. June 2026 CPI data (–0.4% MoM, 3.5% YoY) supports the disinflation thesis. Cassandra.news expects a 68% probability of the annual rate printing below 3.40%, which would support the Fed's rate-cut path.
Data basis for this prediction
- Cleveland Fed Nowcast Core PCE Juni 2026: 3,30 % YoY (econbrowser.com, Stand 25.07.2026)
- RateSpike / Lines.com Prognosemarkt Core PCE MoM Juni 2026: ~5 % für ≥0,3 % MoM
- Truflation via Yahoo Finance: Headline PCE Juni 2026 ca. 3,7–3,84 % YoY; Core niedriger
- BEA Veröffentlichungskalender: PCE-Daten Juni 2026 geplant am 31. Juli 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der US-Kern-PCE-Deflator (YoY) für Juni 2026 lag laut BEA-Veröffentlichung vom 31. Juli 2026 bei 3,3 % – damit klar unter der Schwelle von 3,40 %. Der Monatsanstieg betrug nur +0,1 %. Quellen: BEA 'Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026' (bea.gov/news/2026/personal-income-and-outlays-june-2026), bestätigt durch Yahoo Finance/Quartz-Berichte vom 31. Juli 2026.