The US Department of Justice (DOJ) or Federal Trade Commission (FTC) files a formal antitrust complaint against Apple Inc. related to the App Store or Apple Intelligence platform by 31 December 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 13. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The DOJ filed an antitrust lawsuit against Apple in March 2024 for smartphone market monopolisation; the EU imposed fines in 2024 for App Store DMA violations. Apple Intelligence (AI integration across iOS/macOS) creates new gatekeeping risks that invite regulatory scrutiny. Historical precedent: Microsoft antitrust 1998, Google DOJ lawsuit 2020 — both followed rapidly escalating platform dominance. Counterweight: the Trump administration may scale back Big Tech enforcement (dampening risk ~35%). Own estimate: ~28%.
Data basis for this prediction
- DOJ-Klage gegen Apple: März 2024 (US Department of Justice Pressemitteilung)
- EU DMA-Bußgeld gegen Apple App Store: 2024 (Europäische Kommission Pressemitteilung)
- Apple Intelligence: Markteinführung iOS 18/19, AI-Gatekeeping-Bedenken (Apple Newsroom / Verge, 2024–2025)
- FTC-Leitungsstruktur 2026: neue Vorsitzende, laufende Big-Tech-Überprüfungen (FTC.gov, Stand 2026)
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
The SPD received exactly 18.4% in the 2023 Berlin state election and has since been in opposition. Current polls (August/September 2026) put the SPD at 19–22%, making a result above 18.0% likely. Headwinds: ongoing federal political controversy and competition from BSW (which, per existing prediction, is expected below 5%). The 18.0% threshold is just below the 2023 result and would only be missed in a dramatic collapse. No Polymarket market; Metaculus aggregate implies ~65% for SPD above 18%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Both current Berlin polls place the FDP far below the 5% threshold: INSA (Sept 2–4, 2026): 3.0%; Infratest dimap (Aug 27–31, 2026): FDP below the statistical detectable threshold. The Berlin FDP has not reached the 5% mark in any poll since spring 2026. Clearing the hurdle would require a simultaneous systematic error of 2+ points from both institutes — historically near-unprecedented. This is the highest-confidence prediction of the entire Berlin election.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Current polls show Liberalerna well below the 4% threshold: Indikator Opinion (fieldwork to September 4, 2026): 2.2%; PolitPro election trend (as of September 9, 2026): 2.7%. Neither institute identifies meaningful upward momentum. The party was part of the Tidö coalition but suffered from its image problems. Even with maximum systematic polling error of +1.5 points, Liberalerna would remain below 4.2%. Failing to enter the Riksdag would cost the governing coalition its parliamentary majority.