US ISM Non-Manufacturing/Services PMI September 2026 closes above 53.5 points (release October 5, 2026)
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 27. September 2026
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Predicted for 5. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
US services PMI stood at a strong 55.4 in August 2026 (Business Activity 61.7%, New Orders 60.9%). September reading releases October 5 at 10:00 AM ET; Bloomberg economist consensus is 54.3 (mild cooling). The 53.5 threshold sits 0.8 pts below consensus and 1.9 pts below August — falling below would require an unusually large single-month drop for 2026 conditions. Key risk: employment sub-index was already contracting in August (47.8%); consumer spending remains supported by solid wages. No dedicated Polymarket services PMI market found; overall US economic market pricing (Fed hike 64% per Polymarket) signals continued expansion.
Data basis for this prediction
- ISM: Services PMI August 2026 = 55,4 Pkt., Business Activity 61,7 % (PR Newswire, 3. September 2026)
- ISM Release Calendar: September Services PMI → Veröffentlichung 5. Oktober 2026, 10:00 ET (ismworld.org)
- Bloomberg Economist Consensus: ISM Services September 2026 = 54,3 (September 2026)
- Polymarket: Fed rate hike Oktober 2026 = 64–65 % (polymarket.com, 27. September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der ISM Services PMI für September 2026 wurde am 5. Oktober 2026 mit 54,9 Punkten veröffentlicht (Quelle: ISM/PR Newswire, FXStreet, CNBC). Damit lag der Wert klar über der Schwelle von 53,5 Punkten. Er fiel zwar leicht gegenüber August (55,4 → 54,9, -0,5 Punkte) und verfehlte den Konsens von ca. 55,1-55,2, aber blieb mit 1,4 Punkten Abstand komfortabel oberhalb der prognostizierten Schwelle. Der Employment-Subindex kehrte knapp in die Expansionszone zurück (50,1 %). Die Vorhersage trat ein.
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