US Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by at least two additional 25bp moves after the July meeting, reaching a target band of 3.00–3.25% or lower by 31 December 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Speculative
The current Fed Funds Rate is 3.50-3.75% (effective 3.62%, as of 16 July 2026). Polymarket prices a 95% probability of no change at the July meeting. CME FedWatch prices roughly a 32.5% probability of at least 50bp in cumulative cuts by year-end 2026 (= two 25bp cuts, target band then 3.00-3.25%) — exactly the threshold of this prediction. The Fed's own projection calls for one additional 25bp cut (to 3.25-3.50%) by year-end. Drivers for two cuts: softening PPI MoM (-0.1% in June), weak China GDP (+4.3% Q2), declining consumer confidence. Risk: US tariffs keep PPI YoY at 6.2%, limiting easing.
Data basis for this prediction
- Fed Funds Rate: 3,50–3,75 % (FRED/CNBC, 16.07.2026)
- Polymarket: Fed hält Juli bei 95 % (Stand 16.07.2026)
- CME FedWatch: ≥50 BP bis Dez 2026 bei 32,5 % (CME Group, 16.07.2026)
- US PPI Juni 2026: +6,2 % YoY, -0,1 % MoM (BLS, 15.07.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.