US Federal Reserve raises rates by 25 bps to 4.00%–4.25% at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 23. September 2026
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Predicted for 28. October 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Fed will raise rates by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25% at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting. CME FedWatch shows a 54% market probability as of September 22, 2026; Polymarket prices 'Fed hike in October 2026' at ~56%. The Fed hiked to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026 — its first hike since 2023 — in a unanimous vote. The September dot plot: 16 of 19 FOMC members expect at least one more hike in 2026. Futures price ~4.2% by December 2026 and ~4.7% by September 2027. Counterargument: the Fed often pauses after individual hikes — two consecutive hikes are unusual since 2023.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch Tool: 54% Wahrscheinlichkeit +25bp-Hike am 28. Oktober 2026 (Stand 22. September 2026)
- CNBC: 'Fed rate decision September 2026: Rates rise to 3.75%-4%' (16. September 2026)
- BondSavvy: 'September 2026 Fed Dot Plot Sees Low 4% Fed Funds in 2027'
- Polymarket: 'Fed Decision in October 2026' ~56% (Stand September 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Die Fed hielt den Leitzins am 28. Oktober 2026 unverändert bei 3,75%–4,00% (10:2-Abstimmung). Eine Anhebung auf 4,00%–4,25% fand nicht statt. Zwei Stimmberechtigte (Gov. Lisa Cook, Cleveland Fed-Präsidentin Beth Hammack) votierten zwar für +25 Bp, wurden aber überstimmt. Begründung des FOMC: man wolle zunächst weitere Wirtschaftsdaten abwarten; zudem spielte die Nähe zu den Midterm-Wahlen eine Rolle. Damit trat genau das im Vorhersage-Text selbst genannte Gegenargument ein – die Fed pausierte nach einer Einzelanhebung. Quellen: federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm; CNBC 28.10.2026 ('Fed holds rates steady'); CNN 28.10.2026; caproasia.com 29.10.2026.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.