📈 Economy
· Next Month
US Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75%-4.00% at the October 28, 2026 FOMC meeting (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg by October 28, 2026, 2:00 PM ET)
Probability
83%
The US Federal Reserve last raised rates on September 16, 2026 by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. CME FedWatch data (rateprobability.com, October 12, 2026) shows only ~16-18% probability of another hike at the October 28 meeting; ~82-84% for an unchanged hold. Weak September payrolls and mixed inflation data have shifted the consensus timing for the next hike to the December 9, 2026 meeting, where markets price ~76% probability of a move. No specific Polymarket market found for the October meeting; anchor: CME FedWatch ~84% Hold.
Data basis for this prediction
- rateprobability.com / CME FedWatch: ~16–18 % Hike-Wahrscheinlichkeit Oktober-FOMC 2026 (Stand 12.10.2026)
- Forbes: Fed erhöht Leitzins am 16.09.2026 auf 3,75 %–4,00 % — nächste Sitzung 27.–28. Oktober
- fedratecalc.com: FOMC-Kalender 2026 — verbleibende Sitzungen 27.–28. Oktober, 8.–9. Dezember
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Federal Reserve hielt den Leitzins am 28. Oktober 2026 exakt wie vorhergesagt unverändert bei 3,75 %–4,00 %. Das FOMC stimmte 10-2 für das Halten der Zinsen; zwei Mitglieder (Gov. Lisa Cook und Cleveland-Fed-Präsidentin Beth Hammack) votierten für eine Erhöhung um 25 Bp. Quellen: Fed-Pressemitteilung (federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm), CNBC (cnbc.com/2026/10/28/fed-interest-rate-decision-october-2026.html), CNN (cnn.com/2026/10/28/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-october).