US Federal Reserve (FOMC) cuts the federal funds rate at least once by 25 basis points to 3.25–3.50% by December 31, 2026
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 19. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. December 2026
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Based on: Speculative
Current fed funds rate: 3.50–3.75% (effective 3.62%; CNBC/FRED, July 9, 2026). FOMC meets July 29 (no change expected, already open), September, October/November, December 2026. Tariff-driven growth softness and Core PCE ~2.4–2.6% provide room to cut. Risk: Iran oil shock drives H2 inflation, forcing a pause. Polymarket actively trades 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?'; no direct percentage accessible. No contradiction with open July-29 prediction (no change).
Data basis for this prediction
- CNBC/FRED: Fed-Leitzins 3,50–3,75 % effektiv 3,62 % per 9.07.2026
- Polymarket: 'How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?' aktiv gehandelt (19.07.2026)
- Fortune: Iran-Ölschock – Inflationsrisiko H2 2026
- Fed FOMC Kalender: verbleibende Meetings Sep., Okt./Nov., Dez. 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
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