📈 Economy · Next Month

US Federal Reserve (FOMC) keeps the Federal Funds Rate unchanged at the September 16–17, 2026 meeting (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg)

Pending ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 30. August 2026 · Predicted for 17. September 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

72%

Polymarket prices a September hold at 68%; Kalshi at 70.5%; cross-platform consensus (Polymarket, Kalshi, Myriad) is 74–75% for hold. The July jobs report missed expectations and significantly reduced rate-hike pressure; the 25 bp hike probability fell to 28.5 cents on Kalshi. Strong ISM Manufacturing (July 2026: 55.6 — highest since May 2022) remains a tail risk for a surprise hike. The open year-ahead prediction 'Fed hikes to 3.75–4.00% by December 31, 2026' is compatible with a September hold followed by later action.

Data basis for this prediction

Polymarket: 68 % Wahrscheinlichkeit für Zinspause im September 2026 (Stand: August 2026)
Kalshi: 70,5 % Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit, 25-bp-Hike bei 28,5 Cent (Stand: August 2026)
Benzinga/OddsShopper: Plattformübergreifender Konsens ~74–75 % für September-Pause (August 2026)
ISM World: Juli 2026 ISM Manufacturing PMI 55,6 – höchster Wert seit Mai 2022 (veröffentlicht August 2026)

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Pending

This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.

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