US Federal Reserve raises interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00–4.25 percent — FOMC meeting December 9-10, 2026 (confirmed by Fed press release or Bloomberg by December 10, 2026, 4:00 PM ET)
Pending
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 28. October 2026
·
Predicted for 10. December 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
The Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.75–4.00% as expected today (October 28, 2026). According to CME FedWatch, a 25-basis-point rate hike at the December 2026 FOMC meeting is priced in at approximately 80% probability. Context: US headline CPI was 3.7% YoY in September 2026 — well above the 2% target — despite weak employment data (+29,000 in September). Fed Chair Kevin Warsh signaled continued tightening readiness at today's press conference. A December hike would complete the pattern of three rate increases in 2026 (March, September, December). Risk: a further deterioration in the labor market could force the Fed to pause.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch: ~80% Wahrscheinlichkeit für Dezember-Zinserhöhung nach Oktober-Hold (EBC Financial Group, 28. Oktober 2026)
- FOMC Oktober 2026: Leitzins bei 3,75–4,00% gehalten; Fed-Chair Kevin Warsh Pressekonferenz (Federal Reserve, 28. Oktober 2026)
- US CPI September 2026: 3,7% YoY; Non-Farm Payrolls September 2026: +29.000 (BLS / Bloomberg, Oktober 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Pending
This prediction is still open. It will be evaluated automatically against real-world sources after its due date.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Democrats won both chambers historically at the November 3, 2026 midterms (Senate 54:44, House 258 seats — largest majority since 1993). Trump's disapproval rating stands at 62% (FiveThirtyEight, Nov 2026). Based on documented behavioral pattern: after the 2020 presidential election, Trump posted voter fraud claims within 48 hours; after the 2022 midterms, challenges followed within a week. Metaculus community places >70% probability on public contesting after major GOP losses. A public statement via Truth Social, press release, or confirmed media interview by November 15, 2026 counts as verification (Reuters or AP).
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Ukrainian, US, and Russian negotiators convene November 10–11 in Abu Dhabi. Russia conducted large-scale long-range strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure and logistics hubs on November 3–4; Ukraine responded with drone strikes on the Ryazan refinery. Positions on territory and security guarantees remain far apart. No Polymarket or Kalshi market covers this specific event; historical base rate for failure of comparable trilateral talks: >80%.
🏛️ Politics
✦ AI
Spain holds a general election on 29 November 2026. Polymarket prices Feijóo as next PM at 85%, Kalshi at 82% — both serve as anchors. A separate Polymarket market gives PP+Vox a 92% probability of a joint majority (>176/350 seats). Current polls (Sondaxe) show PP at 29.2% narrowly ahead of PSOE (26.9%); Vox is tracking slightly higher. Feijóo failed to form a government in 2023, but market odds reflect the lesson learned: PP+Vox is now seen as stable enough. No deviation from market anchor warranted.