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· Next Month
US Federal Reserve keeps the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at the July 30, 2026 FOMC meeting
Probability
78%
The current Fed funds target rate is 3.50–3.75% (effectively 3.62% as of July 9, 2026). CME FedWatch as of July 13–17, 2026 shows a hold probability of ~78%; a 25bp rate hike has gained ~22% probability (up from 12.5% a month ago). A cut is priced at 0%. Rising US gasoline prices (Kalshi: 88–93% odds above $4/gallon by end of July) and persistent Hormuz-crisis inflation provide hawkish arguments. The open platform prediction of 'at least two further 25bp cuts after the July meeting' is consistent with a hold in July.
Data basis for this prediction
- CME FedWatch: Hold-WS Juli 2026 ~78,1 %, Hike ~21,9 % (Stand 13.–17. Juli 2026)
- CNBC: 'A July rate hike from the Fed? The odds are rising' (13. Juli 2026)
- FRED/CNBC: Fed Funds Rate effektiv 3,62 % (Stand 9. Juli 2026)
- Kalshi: US-Benzin über 4 USD/Gallone bis Juli-Ende – 88–93 % Wahrscheinlichkeit
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die Fed hat auf der FOMC-Sitzung am 28.–29. Juli 2026 den Leitzins tatsächlich unverändert bei 3,50–3,75 % belassen (9:3-Abstimmung). Die drei Gegenstimmen kamen von den Regionalpräsidenten Hammack (Cleveland), Kashkari (Minneapolis) und Logan (Dallas), die eine Anhebung um 25 Basispunkte bevorzugt hätten. Das ist genau der Halteentscheid, den die Vorhersage mit 78 % Wahrscheinlichkeit erwartet hatte. Kleiner Hinweis: Die Entscheidung fiel offiziell am 29. Juli, nicht am 30. Juli (die Sitzung lief 28.–29. Juli 2026). Quellen: CNBC 'Fed rate decision July 2026: Divided Fed holds interest rates steady' (https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/fed-rate-decision-july-2026.html); Federal Reserve Press Release (https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a1.htm); CNN Business (https://edition.cnn.com/2026/07/29/business/live-news/federal-reserve-interest-rate-07-29-26).