US Producer Price Index (PPI) August 2026 (BLS, September 10, 2026): Headline rate above 4.0% year-on-year
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 4. September 2026
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Predicted for 10. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
US PPI for July 2026 was 4.7% YoY (headline) and 4.2% YoY (core ex food & energy) per BLS. With Brent crude at $95.23 on September 4 2026 (+8% on the week due to Middle East tensions and Hormuz concerns), the energy component remains structurally elevated. Falling below 4.0% within one month appears unlikely. No direct Polymarket market available for this release.
Data basis for this prediction
- BLS PPI News Release Juli 2026: Gesamt 4,7% YoY, Kern 4,2% YoY (bls.gov, August 2026)
- Brent-Rohöl: 95,23 USD/Barrel am 4. September 2026 (EasternHerald.com / ICE)
- BLS PPI-Veröffentlichungskalender: 10. September 2026, 8:30 AM ET (bls.gov)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-PPI August 2026 wurde am 10. September 2026 vom BLS veröffentlicht: Jahresrate 5,4 % – deutlich über der Schwelle von 4,0 %. Stärkste 12-Monatsrate des Jahres 2026. Quelle: BLS PPI News Release, CNBC, Quartz.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.