US Producer Price Index August 2026 (BLS, September 10, 2026): YoY Rate Above 3.5%
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 3. September 2026
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Predicted for 10. September 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
US PPI stood at +4.70% YoY in July 2026, signaling persistently elevated producer inflation. Despite the weak ADP print of only 38,000 new jobs for August (consensus 48,000), core producer prices remain supported by sticky energy and services costs. Bloomberg consensus expects a moderate easing to ~4.1–4.3% YoY — the 3.5% threshold sits far below the forecast range. No prediction market covers this event.
Data basis for this prediction
- BLS: US PPI Juli 2026 +4,70% YoY (veröffentlicht August 2026)
- ADP National Employment Report: August 2026 +38.000 Stellen, unter Konsens 48.000 (Fox Business, 3. September 2026)
- FedRateCalc.com: US PPI August-Veröffentlichungstermin 10. September 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US-PPI August 2026 YoY: 4,7% laut BLS-Veröffentlichung vom 10. September 2026 — deutlich über dem Schwellenwert von 3,5%.
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Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.
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Gold at $4,415.97 on September 10 (day range $4,389–$4,419, prior close $4,402). Required move to $4,450: +0.77% from current. Drivers: escalated Persian Gulf geopolitical risk (Brent >$101), rising US yields (~4.86% 10yr), uncertainty around CPI data (release Sept 11) and FOMC decision (Sept 16). Existing pipeline: Gold >$4,500 on September 15, implying the metal should be near or above $4,500 by Friday. The $4,450 milestone on Friday Sept 12 is a plausible stepping stone. Implied vol (~15% annualized) gives a 2-day 1-sigma band of ±~$55 from current.
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