📈 Economy
· Next Week
US Initial Jobless Claims (reporting week 26 July 2026, BLS release 30 July 2026) come in below 200,000 (confirmed by Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Probability
62%
For the week ending 18 July 2026, initial claims came in at just 187,000 – the lowest in nearly 60 years and 25,000 below the consensus of 212,000 (BLS/PNC Economics, 23 July 2026). Staying below 200,000 one week later is realistic given such structural strength, even after modest mean-reversion from the outlier. Counter-argument: late-July seasonal corrections can introduce volatility; late filings could revise the figure upward.
Data basis for this prediction
- BLS: Initial Jobless Claims Woche 18. Juli 2026 – 187.000 (erw. 212.000)
- PNC Economics Research Note 23. Juli 2026: 'lowest claims level since ~1960s'
- Investinglive.com: US initial jobless claims 187K vs 212K expected, 23. Juli 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Die BLS/DOL-Veröffentlichung vom 30. Juli 2026 wies für die Woche zum 25. Juli 2026 saisonbereinigte Erstanträge von 197.000 aus – ein Anstieg von 9.000 gegenüber dem revidierten Vorwochenwert (187.000 → 188.000), aber klar unter der Marke von 200.000. Ökonomen hatten im Schnitt 200.000 erwartet; die Vorhersage, unter dieser Schwelle zu bleiben, trat somit ein. Quellen: DOL Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report (dol.gov, 30.07.2026); ABC News / AP 30.07.2026 (abcnews.com); Quartz (qz.com/weekly-jobless-claims-197000-july-2026-073026).