📈 Economy · Next Month

US Employment Cost Index (ECI) Q2 2026 (BLS, 31 July 2026) rises by more than 0.9% quarter-on-quarter

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 15. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

43%

ECI published July 31, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Historical ECI: +0.9% QoQ in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. With persistently tight labor market (US Initial Claims <230k per existing prediction), ongoing wage negotiations in healthcare and IT, and energy price pressure from the Hormuz crisis, wage inflation remains sticky. A reading >0.9% QoQ would be slightly above consensus of ~0.8–0.9% and would dampen Fed rate-cut expectations for late 2026. No Polymarket quote available.

Data basis for this prediction

Scotiabank Economic Calendar: US ECI Q2 2026 Veröffentlichung 31. Juli 2026 (Scotiabank CA, Juli 2026)
BLS: US ECI Q4 2024 +0,9 % QoQ; Q1 2025 +0,9 % QoQ (historisches Muster)
Federal Reserve Leitzins: 3,50–3,75 % (CNBC/FRED, Stand 9. Juli 2026)
Bestehende Vorhersage: US Initial Claims <230.000 (KW12 Juli 2026) – Zeichen weiter enger Arbeitsmarktlage

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der US ECI Q2 2026 stieg laut BLS-Veröffentlichung vom 31. Juli 2026 um genau 0,9 % QoQ (saisonbereinigt) – nicht mehr als 0,9 %, wie die Vorhersage verlangte. Der Jahresvergleich (nicht saisonbereinigt) lag bei 3,4 %. Der Wert traf damit exakt den Konsens (0,8–0,9 %) und verfehlte die Schwelle >0,9 % knapp. Quellen: BLS Employment Cost Index Summary Q2 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm) und BigGo Finance (https://finance.biggo.com/news/74ebd921-6b61-4d0b-a6d0-7592faaf8f7e).

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

S&P 500 (^GSPC) closes above 7,450 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by NYSE closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The S&P 500 closed at 7,636.36 on 9 September 2026. Falling below 7,450 by month-end would require a 2.4% decline. Headwinds: Fed rate hike of 25bp on 16 September (CentralBank.Watch: 59% probability), August PPI above expectations (+5.4% YoY), Iran-Gulf risk premium. Stabilizing factors: hike largely priced in (Polymarket: 93% for zero 2026 cuts), Q2 earnings solid, no recession signals. Historically, a single 25bp September hike rarely causes a monthly decline above 2.5%.

73%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

US Federal Reserve raises the Federal Funds target range by 25 basis points on 16 September 2026 (FOMC decision)

Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.

53%

Next Week · Predicted for 16. Sep 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

DAX 40 (XETRA) closes above 26,000 points on 30 September 2026 (confirmed by XETRA closing price or Bloomberg by 30 September 2026)

The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.

48%

Next Month · Predicted for 30. Sep 2026