📈 Economy · Next Month

US Employment Cost Index (ECI) Q2 2026 (BLS, 31 July 2026) rises by more than 0.9% quarter-on-quarter

Miss ✦ AI-generated prediction Published on 15. July 2026 · Predicted for 31. July 2026 · Based on: Historical Cycle

Probability

43%

ECI published July 31, 2026 at 8:30 AM ET. Historical ECI: +0.9% QoQ in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025. With persistently tight labor market (US Initial Claims <230k per existing prediction), ongoing wage negotiations in healthcare and IT, and energy price pressure from the Hormuz crisis, wage inflation remains sticky. A reading >0.9% QoQ would be slightly above consensus of ~0.8–0.9% and would dampen Fed rate-cut expectations for late 2026. No Polymarket quote available.

Data basis for this prediction

Scotiabank Economic Calendar: US ECI Q2 2026 Veröffentlichung 31. Juli 2026 (Scotiabank CA, Juli 2026)
BLS: US ECI Q4 2024 +0,9 % QoQ; Q1 2025 +0,9 % QoQ (historisches Muster)
Federal Reserve Leitzins: 3,50–3,75 % (CNBC/FRED, Stand 9. Juli 2026)
Bestehende Vorhersage: US Initial Claims <230.000 (KW12 Juli 2026) – Zeichen weiter enger Arbeitsmarktlage

Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.

Verdict: Miss

Der US ECI Q2 2026 stieg laut BLS-Veröffentlichung vom 31. Juli 2026 um genau 0,9 % QoQ (saisonbereinigt) – nicht mehr als 0,9 %, wie die Vorhersage verlangte. Der Jahresvergleich (nicht saisonbereinigt) lag bei 3,4 %. Der Wert traf damit exakt den Konsens (0,8–0,9 %) und verfehlte die Schwelle >0,9 % knapp. Quellen: BLS Employment Cost Index Summary Q2 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/news.release/eci.nr0.htm) und BigGo Finance (https://finance.biggo.com/news/74ebd921-6b61-4d0b-a6d0-7592faaf8f7e).

Related Predictions

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) beats Q2 FY2027 EPS consensus of approx. -$0.45 per share — earnings report November 9, 2026 after close

Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.

60%

Tomorrow · Predicted for 9. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Constellation Energy (NASDAQ: CEG) beats Q3-FY2026 EPS consensus of $3.90 per share — earnings report November 9, 2026 before market open (confirmed by Constellation Energy Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 9, 2026, 12:00 PM ET)

Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.

68%

Tomorrow · Predicted for 9. Nov 2026

📈 Economy ✦ AI

Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) beats Q3-FY2027 EPS consensus of $0.64 per share — earnings report November 19, 2026 before market open (confirmed by Walmart Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 19, 2026, 12:00 PM ET)

Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.

65%

Next Month · Predicted for 19. Nov 2026