US Core PCE Price Index (BEA, June 2026, release July 31, 2026): annual rate (YoY) comes in at 3.0% or higher
Hit
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 16. July 2026
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Predicted for 31. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
US Core PCE (excluding energy and food) was 3.4% YoY in May 2026 — in line with the Dow Jones consensus. A drop below 3.0% within a single month would only be plausible with significant base effects or a sharp drop in core goods prices — both unlikely given ongoing import tariff effects (Trump tariffs). The FOMC projects 2026 PCE inflation of 3.0–3.5% (Fed, June 17, 2026). Kalshi/Lines.com assigns 33% probability to exactly 3.4% — the majority of remaining market probability also falls at ≥3.0%. Separate, non-overlapping forecast: US ECI Q2 (also July 31 BLS) is already covered as an open prediction.
Data basis for this prediction
- US Core PCE Mai 2026: 3,4 % YoY, +0,3 % MoM – in Linie mit Dow-Jones-Konsens (CNBC, 25. Juni 2026)
- Kalshi / Lines.com Präzisionsmarkt: 33 % Wahrscheinlichkeit auf Core PCE YoY Juni 2026 = genau 3,4 % (Stand 2. Juli 2026)
- FOMC-Projektionen Juni 2026: PCE-Inflation 2026 erwartet im Bereich 3,0–3,5 % (Federal Reserve, 17. Juni 2026)
- BEA Core PCE Veröffentlichungstermin Juni 2026: 31. Juli 2026
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Hit
Der US Core PCE (ohne Energie und Lebensmittel) notierte für Juni 2026 bei 3,3 % YoY – veröffentlicht durch das BEA am 31. Juli 2026 (Quelle: BEA 'Personal Income and Outlays, June 2026'). Die Vorhersage, dass der Wert bei ≥3,0 % liegen würde, ist damit klar eingetreten. Der Rückgang von 3,4 % (Mai) auf 3,3 % (Juni) war minimal und bestätigte die Einschätzung, dass ein Unterschreiten der 3,0 %-Marke innerhalb eines Monats angesichts der Tarif-Effekte unwahrscheinlich sei.
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