US Core PCE June 2026 (Release July 25, 2026): Year-on-Year Rate at 3.0% or Above
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 24. July 2026
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Predicted for 25. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
US Core PCE for May 2026 came in at 3.4% YoY, the highest since October 2023. Lines.com and FOMC projections (June 2026 SEP: Q4 median 3.3%) place June at 3.2–3.4%. A print below 3.0% would require a 40+ bp single-month drop — near-impossible given persistent services inflation and tariff pass-through. CME FedWatch prices 83.4% probability of no rate change at the July 29 FOMC, implying markets expect no surprisingly low PCE.
Data basis for this prediction
- Lines.com PCE-Markt: Core PCE YoY Juni 2026 Konsens 3,2–3,4 % (Stand 22. Juli 2026)
- FRED Blog / FOMC SEP Juni 2026: Core PCE Median Q4 2026 = 3,3 %
- BEA PCE-Releasekalender: Juni-Daten Veröffentlichung 25. Juli 2026
- CNBC: Core PCE Mai 2026 = 3,4 % YoY (berichtet Juli 2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] Der US Core PCE-Index für Juni 2026 wird NICHT am 25. Juli veröffentlicht. Der offizielle BEA-Veröffentlichungstermin ist der 30. Juli 2026. Das vorhergesagte Ereignis (Veröffentlichung am 25. Juli) kann nicht eintreten. Quelle: BEA.gov, Cleveland Fed Nowcast.
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