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· Next Week
US Core PCE Deflator (July 2026, released August 29, 2026): Year-over-year rate at 2.3% or below
Probability
38%
The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases the PCE deflator for July 2026 on August 29, 2026 — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge. Core PCE (ex energy and food) was running at approximately 2.4% YoY per Fed STEO projections, on a declining path. A further decline in July is expected as OER rents ease and goods deflation persists. In the Jackson Hole context: if Warsh signals a September rate pause, a Core PCE ≤2.3% is the most likely data-driven underpinning. Kalshi prices Fed September hold at 69%.
Data basis for this prediction
- Fed STEO-Prognose August 2026: Core PCE auf Sinkpfad Richtung 2,2% Ende 2026 (Federal Reserve, August 2026)
- US Core PCE Schätzung Juni 2026: ~2,4% YoY (BEA Vormonats-Release, Investing.com)
- BEA Veröffentlichungskalender: Juli-2026-PCE-Daten am 29. August 2026 (bea.gov)
- Kalshi FOMC September 2026 Hold-Wahrscheinlichkeit: ~69% (Stand 22.08.2026)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
[Vorzeitig entschieden] US Core PCE Juli 2026 lag bei 3,3 % auf Jahresbasis (nicht ≤ 2,3 %). Veröffentlicht vom BEA am 26. August 2026 (BEA 26-39). Quelle: bea.gov, Yahoo Finance, NchStats (26.08.2026)