US Conference Board Consumer Confidence July 2026 (release July 28, 2026) at 95.0 points or above
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
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Predicted for 28. July 2026
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Based on: Historical Cycle
The Conference Board releases the Consumer Confidence Index for July 2026 on the last Tuesday of the month, July 28, 2026. Conflicting forces shape the picture: on one hand, the active US-Iran war (since July 2026) and stubborn inflation (US CPI 4.2% y/y); on the other, a still-solid labor market (unemployment rate 4.3%, 172,000 new jobs in May). The threshold of 95 points is deliberately below the long-term average (~100) but appropriately reflects geopolitical uncertainty. No Polymarket or Kalshi data available for this specific indicator; own assessment based on current macro data.
Data basis for this prediction
- US CPI Mai 2026: 4,2 % y/y (BLS, Stand 26. Juli 2026)
- US Arbeitslosenquote Juni 2026: 4,3 % (BLS, Stand 26. Juli 2026)
- US-Iran-Krieg aktiv seit Juli 2026; Waffenstillstand de facto ausgesetzt (Reuters/AFP, 26. Juli 2026)
- Conference Board Release-Termin: letzter Dienstag des Monats = 28. Juli 2026 (Conference Board Kalender)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Der Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index für Juli 2026 wurde am 28. Juli 2026 veröffentlicht und notierte bei 90,8 Punkten – deutlich unter dem Schwellenwert von 95,0. Der Index fiel gegenüber dem revidierten Juni-Wert von 92,2 um 1,4 Punkte und lag auch unter der Markterwartung von 92,3–92,4. Der Present Situation Index sank auf 114,9 (3. Rückgang in Folge), der Expectations Index verharrte bei 74,7. Quellen: [PRNewswire](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-in-july-302836484.html), [Yahoo Finance/QZ](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/u-consumer-confidence-index-falls-141504782.html), [Advisor Perspectives](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/28/consumer-confidence-conference-board-july-2026).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
The DAX closed at 25,562 points on September 9, 2026. A gain of +1.7% is required by month-end. Headwinds: ECB rate hike to 2.50% (September 10), 53% FOMC hike probability (September 16), persistently high oil prices (~$101/barrel Brent) weigh on energy-intensive DAX heavyweights. Tailwinds: strong SAP cloud growth expected, robust US demand, EUR/USD at 1.1644 benefits exporters. Implied 30-day volatility (VDAX): ~16%, corresponding to a σ range of roughly ±5.5% by month-end — the 26,000 level falls within the central distribution.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Polymarket shows a 53% probability for a 25 basis point hike as of September 10, 2026. US Core CPI August 2026 (release September 11) is expected by market consensus to be above 3.0% YoY. The ECB raised its deposit rate by 25 bps to 2.50% on September 10, 2026 – an inflation-fighting signal that provides cover for the Fed. Against a hike: a mild slowdown in US industrial output. CME FedWatch also shows ~53% probability for a hike.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Bitcoin at $78,136 (September 9, 2026). Kalshi markets assign ~83% probability of BTC touching $100,000 at any point in 2026. Polymarket gives BTC 68% odds to close above $90,000 by year-end. A year-end close above $100,000 (not just a touch) is more demanding: median year-end contract estimates imply ~$81,000. Arguments for >$100k close: historical Q4 seasonality (+49% in Q4 2024, +56% in Q4 2023), ETF inflows, institutional demand. Headwinds: active Fed hiking cycle (~3.75% current funds rate), 10yr yield at 4.86%.