US Conference Board Consumer Confidence July 2026 (release July 28, 2026) at 95.0 points or above
Miss
✦ AI-generated prediction
Published on 26. July 2026
·
Predicted for 28. July 2026
·
Based on: Historical Cycle
The Conference Board releases the Consumer Confidence Index for July 2026 on the last Tuesday of the month, July 28, 2026. Conflicting forces shape the picture: on one hand, the active US-Iran war (since July 2026) and stubborn inflation (US CPI 4.2% y/y); on the other, a still-solid labor market (unemployment rate 4.3%, 172,000 new jobs in May). The threshold of 95 points is deliberately below the long-term average (~100) but appropriately reflects geopolitical uncertainty. No Polymarket or Kalshi data available for this specific indicator; own assessment based on current macro data.
Data basis for this prediction
- US CPI Mai 2026: 4,2 % y/y (BLS, Stand 26. Juli 2026)
- US Arbeitslosenquote Juni 2026: 4,3 % (BLS, Stand 26. Juli 2026)
- US-Iran-Krieg aktiv seit Juli 2026; Waffenstillstand de facto ausgesetzt (Reuters/AFP, 26. Juli 2026)
- Conference Board Release-Termin: letzter Dienstag des Monats = 28. Juli 2026 (Conference Board Kalender)
Note: This is an AI-generated statistical forecast for entertainment and information purposes. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
Verdict: Miss
Der Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index für Juli 2026 wurde am 28. Juli 2026 veröffentlicht und notierte bei 90,8 Punkten – deutlich unter dem Schwellenwert von 95,0. Der Index fiel gegenüber dem revidierten Juni-Wert von 92,2 um 1,4 Punkte und lag auch unter der Markterwartung von 92,3–92,4. Der Present Situation Index sank auf 114,9 (3. Rückgang in Folge), der Expectations Index verharrte bei 74,7. Quellen: [PRNewswire](https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-edged-down-in-july-302836484.html), [Yahoo Finance/QZ](https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/articles/u-consumer-confidence-index-falls-141504782.html), [Advisor Perspectives](https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2026/07/28/consumer-confidence-conference-board-july-2026).
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Take-Two Interactive reports Q2 FY2027 (July–September 2026) results on November 9 after market close. Estimated analyst consensus: approx. -$0.45 EPS (heavy investment cycle around GTA VI and other AAA titles). TTWO has beaten consensus in 6 of the last 8 quarters; strong Recurrent Consumer Spending base (mobile, NBA 2K, GTA Online) consistently delivers positive surprises on cost discipline. Report date confirmed by TipRanks Earnings Calendar (as of Nov 8, 2026). Verification by TTWO Investor Relations or Bloomberg by November 10, 2026, 10:00 ET.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Constellation Energy reports Q3-FY2026 tomorrow (November 9, 2026) before market open. TradingView and Gurufocus put the EPS consensus at $3.90/share, with revenue consensus at $9.23B. CEG has beaten estimates in 7 of the last 8 quarters — an 87.5% historical beat rate. Driver: Structurally rising nuclear power demand for AI data centers (e.g., Microsoft contracts) boosts reactor utilization and secures stable cash flows. Risk: Stock fell ~9% post-midterm results, reflecting repriced regulatory uncertainty that could overshadow near-term operational strength. Strong fundamentals and consistent beat history nevertheless support another consensus beat.
📈 Economy
✦ AI
Walmart has beaten EPS estimates for four consecutive quarters. The official consensus is $0.64/share — identical to the top of management guidance ($0.62–$0.64). Analysts average $0.72 (range $0.70–$0.73), anticipating another structural beat. Drivers: Robust US consumer (October CPI ~3.5–3.7%; September retail sales +0.8% MoM), ongoing grocery market share gains, and strong e-commerce and advertising growth. Risk: Management lowered full-year guidance after Q2; macro headwinds from elevated prices could compress volume mixes. The consistent beat history and structural tailwinds prevail.